Why be concerned with the probability that a compact
meeting of ELSs would happen by chance?
The argument goes like this.
If a meeting can be shown to be likely to happen
by chance, then there is a chance explanation for it. A chance
explanation is one that says:
"What you found is likely
to have been found if monkeys typed the text.
Therefore, if you find such a meeting, there is no great
delight in sharing with others because people will
`I also could find that one in a monkey text.' "
So if a meeting is put there deliberately by the author
of the text, then the author would certainly not put it
there as a meeting that has a chance explanation precisely
because in that case we could not distinguish between one put
there deliberately and one that occurs by chance.
On the other hand, the meetings that have a very small probability
of happening by chance are not likely to be found in
a monkey text. And we shall see that this
makes it more likely that a monkey did not type the text.
Probability of Deliberate Meeting
Calculating probabilities associated with Torah code experiments can be difficult
and messy. Some observe what they believe to be a meaningful pattern in
some ELSs and wonder in amazement that it happens at all. They think the probability
that such a pattern would happen by chance is infinitessimally small. More often than
not their intuition is wrong. Others attempt an analytic probability calculation,
and do it wrong. If you are interested in reading about these click: